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From Socialist Appeal, Vol. 4 No. 47, 23 November 1940, p. 3.
Transcribed & marked up by Einde O’Callaghan for the Encyclopaedia of Trotskyism On-Line (ETOL).
New Japanese moves seem to be waiting upon completion of the Soviet-Japanese negotiations which were interrupted by Molotov’s trip to Berlin. It Is generally assumed that one of the things Hitler impressed upon Stalin’s emissary was the necessity for rapidly coming to an understanding with Japan which will clear the road for the Far Eastern diversion that Hitler wants.
The Japanese, for their part, are preparing to move – and from their point of view it is not at all a diversion but a major drive to grasp hold of the Far Eastern strongholds of Britain’s empire. Heavy concentrations of troops are waiting on Hainan, island off the south coast of China, and in Formosa, to begin the southern thrust. First step is evidently to be Saigon leading to acquisition of the important French naval base at Camranh Bay. This would in turn by the starting point for eventual attack on Singapore and the Dutch East Indies.
As in so many other critical junctures of the war, Stalin this time also is expected to give the green light. The expected Soviet-Japanese pact will presumably come in due course as one of the results of the Berlin parley. The Japanese are meanwhile employing every possible means to ease the pressure upon them in China. Assuredly Stalin will be expected to help in this regard too.
The probability of major events in the Far East this winter and into the coming Spring necessarily raises the immediate issue of American policy. All campaign denials to the contrary, it appears pretty plain that an Anglo-American understanding already exists with reference to the coming eventualities. The British have undoubtedly made Singapore available for the use of the U.S. fleet. That fleet has already been strengthened by a number of cruisers and submarines. The U.S. air establishment in the Philippines has likewise been increased by several squadrons.
These steps are not likely to prove a sufficient deterrent for the Japanese. On the contrary, the Japanese have every interest in speeding up matters in order to be entrenched as far as possible before the U.S. is actually ready to go war on a big scale.
Furthermore the situation in the Atlantic is not such as to encourage the Washington administration to go ahead in the Pacific.
This winter is destined to provide the major test of British seapower and it is not at all accidental that the prime concern of U.S. policy has been and remains the strengthening of the American Atlantic position, the acquisition and development of bases in Latin America – under whatever guise the Latin American governments requires – and fresh effort to back Britain in the hard and difficult months that lie ahead.
Of all these factors Japan is well aware. This is still the golden opportunity for the Japanese imperialists and they are not likely to let it pass.
All they are waiting for is the go ahead, signal from Moscow. And that signal will not be long in forthcoming.
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Last updated: 16 November 2020