Lenin: 1916/ni-mu: GRAIN IN WORLD TRADE

Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

NOTEBOOK “μ”

(“MU”)

GRAIN IN WORLD TRADE

Grain in World Trade, published by the Imperial Ministry of Agriculture, etc., Vienna, 1900.

A monumental work (860 + 188 pp., 8° format)- a most painstaking summary of very rich data ((a mass of basic figures)) on grain production, consumption and trade for 1878-97 (in some cases other years). I know of nothing of comparable value. Apparently, the best in this field. [N.B. Borrows much from Neumann - Spallart, Surveys of World Economy (and Juraschek)].

I select the most important (*).

	Iron ore (mill. tons)	Steel	Coal	Cop-	Con- sump- tion of cop- per		Gold output (mill. ozs)		Oil (mill. gal- lons)
	(1900- 02)	(1901- 03)	(1901- 03)	(1905)	(000 tons		(1901- 03)		(1902- 04)
United						Trans-
States	30.7	14.3	284.0	0.41	215	vaal	4.9
Germany	17.5	7.3	152.8	0.02	144	United
United						States	3.7	. . .	3,573
King-						Austra-
dom	13.2	4.9	225.5	—	133	lia	3.5
Russia	5.4	2.0	16.1	0.009	29	Russia	1.1	. . .	2,278
France	5.0	1.6	31.9		63	Canada	0.9	Japan	51
Austria-						Mexico	0.5	India	87
Hun-						India	0.5	Ruma-
gary	3.4	1.2	39.5		36			nia	98
Spain	8.0	0.2	0.04			New Zea-
Mexico			0.06			land	0.4	Galicia	179
						Rhode-		Sumatra,
Italy					18	sia	0.3	Java,
Sweden	3.7	0.3						Borneo	231
Belgium	—	0.8	22.6
Austral- asia				0.04
World total	90.4	33.0	812.4	0.7	679		17.7		6,996
	——	——	——	——	——		——		——

(*) Units of measurement: metric centner = 1 double centner. Metric quintal = double centner = 100 kilograms (double centner).

In other words, the unit used is metric quintal = 1 double centner = 1 metric centner.

Ton = 1,000 kilograms.

Acre = 40.467 ares

Quarter = 2.09 hectolitres.

Pood = 16.379 kilograms.

Cf. p. 8, note 2: 3.674 bushels = 1 quintal (= 1 double centner).

p. 6, note 2: 1 hectolitre of wheat = 78 kilograms, etc. (oats, 1 hectolitre = 45 kilograms), etc

[e.g. p. 271: 49,348 poods = 8,083 quintals.]

⋕^[1] World production, million metric centners
							In percentages				p. 37		p. 39
Annual average	Wheat	Rye	Barley	Oats	Maize¹⁾	Total	Wheat	Rye	Barley	Oats	Maize	Total	Population of Europe, America and Australia


1878-82	554.5	303.7	176.4	319.7	492.0	1,846.3	100	100	100	100	100	100	440	mill.=	100	%
1883-87	579.7	330.2	182.9	356.9	543.9	1,993.6	105	109	104	112	111	108	466		106
1888-92	592.0	310.2	191.5	366.6	603.1	2,063.4	107	102	109	115	123	112	495		112
1893-97	642.7	370.1	214.4	408.7	608.4	2,244.3	116	122	122	128	124	122	526		119

Western Europe
1878-82	233.4	130.4	102.8	159.3	70.1		103	57	43	71	19
1893-97	250.1	145.2	100.5	171.2	74.2		96	56	39	73	17²⁾
See next page^[1]							kg. per capita

Eastern Europe
1878-82	87.5	162.2	43.2				102	153	45	82	45
1893-97	147.2	209.3	71.6				110	145	49	79	47²⁾
Next page, note 1^[1]

Western Europe
1876-85	10.89	10.17	13.0	11.73	11.23
1886-95	11.16	10.89	13.18	12.01	10.93
Yield per hectare ³⁾
Eastern Europe
1876-85	6.69	6.20	6.92	5.96	10.06
1886-95	7.36	6.64	7.78	6.45	10.60
Yield per hectare ³⁾
United States
1876-85	8.35	8.18	12.45	10.09	15.89
1886-95	8.58	7.95	12.66	9.36	14.79


¹⁾ Maize in the U.S.A.: 379.2; 426.9; 471.4; 465.8 ((i.e., > 75 per cent is in the United States)).

²⁾ These figures, p. 21, are from Sundbärg, who includes Hungary, Galicia and Bukovina in Eastern Europe; the data for 1876-85 and 1886-95 refer to per-capita grain output, in kilograms.

³⁾ These figures, p. 26, likewise from Sundbärg, denote yield per hectare in metric centners.

Per-capita Consumption (kg.)						Europe + United States
Europe
	Wheat	Rye	Barley	Oats	Maize	Wheat	Rye	Barley	Oats	Maize
1878-82	111.9	89.8	44.4	76.7	36.7	118.2	79.4	41.9	82.6	127.5
1883-87	112.4	92.3	42.5	74.5	33.3	118.2	80.7	40.1	86.1	132.1
1888-92	108.1	81.8	41.4	70.6	35.3	114.1	71.2	39.4	83.1	136.9
1893-97	116.1	91.9	45.2	75.6	34.9	116.1	79.0	41.3	85.7	125.2

United States						(Europe + United States (p. 93))
							First four cereals	Europe	U.S.A.
							First four cereals	(first four cereals)


1878-82	100	9	19	101	592		322.2	323.4	314.5
1883-87	107	8	21	131	621		325.2	321.7	346.9
1888-92	105	8	23	129	648		307.8	302.0	341.8
1893-97	78	6	16	117	525		322.1	328.8	284.5

⋕ Data given for following countries¹⁾:			Yield per hectare, double centners (100 kilograms)
	Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich, 1915	Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich, 1915

		Average wheat production		↓	Rye pro duction:			↓		Wheat	(²)		Rye
		mill. double centners		mill. tons (1,000 kg.)	mill. double centners			mill. tons
		1878-82	1893-97	1913	1878-82	1893-97		1913	1876-85	1886-95	1913	1876-85	1886-95	1913
1.	Belgium	4.7	5.0	0.40	4.2	5.2		0.57	16.3	18.5	25.2	14.9	16.9	22.0
2.	Bulgaria	7.4	9.9	1.65	1.9	1.9		0.27			16.0			14.9
3.	Denmark	1.2	1.0	0.2	4.4	4.8		0.43	22.0	25.2	33.7	15.9	16.0	17.6
4.	Germany	23.7	29.5	3.97	58.5	70.6		10.43	12.7	13.7	20.7	9.8	10.6	17.2
5.	Finland	0.0	10.04	0.004	2.4	3.1		0.24	10.6	11.8	10.9	9.7	10.6	9.9
6.	France	75.2	84.0	8.7	17.6	16.7		1.27	11.2	11.9	13.3	10.0	10.6	10.6
7.	Greece	1.4	1.3	?	0	0		?	_	_	_	_	_	_
8.	Great Britain	22.1	15.0	1.4	0.4	0.5		0	18.2	20.1	21.1	—	—	—
	Ireland			0.03				0.005			25.6
9.	Italy	40.3	33.2	5.83	1.3	1.1		0.14	8.0	7.4	12.2	—	—	—
10.	Holland	1.4	1.2	0.1	2.6	3.1		0.42	16.9	18.7	24.2	12.9	14.3	18.5
11.	Austria-Hungary	37.9	52.4	1.6	29.5	31.2		2.7	10.8	10.7	13.4	9.9	9.9	13.8
	Hungary			4.5				1.34	9.6	12.4	12.8	8.3	10.2	11.9
12.	Portugal	1.7	1.9	?	1.3	1.3		?	—	—	—	—	—	—
13.	Rumania	13.4	15.4	2.3	1.2	2.1		0.09	—	10.6	14.1	—	—	10.5
14.	Russia (European + Poland)	55.1	112.6	22.8	152.9	198.3		24.69	5.3	5.6	9.1	6.0	6.4	8.5
15.	Sweden-Norway	0.9	1.2	0.2	4.9	5.7		0.56	13.1	14.8	24.2	13.4	14.4	14.1
	Norway			0.08				0.02			17.6			16.3
16.	Switzerland	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.4		0.05	—	—	22.0	—	—	19.2
17.	Serbia	2.4	2.2	0.4	0.3	0.3		0.04	—	—	10.7	—	—	8.7
18.	Spain	23.1	24.7	3.0	5.1	4.4		0.71	—	—	7.8	—	—	9.1
19.	Turkey (European)	7.7	5.6	?	3.3	3.5			—	—		—	—
							{	Western
								Europe	10.9	11.2		10.2	10.9
								Eastern	6.7	7.4		6.2	6.6

	Europe	320.9	397.3	Σ=57.0	292.6	354.4			8.8	9.2		7.3	7.8
20.	Algeria	5.6	6.1	1.0	0	0		0.00			7.2			13.7
21.	Egypt	4.8	3.3	?	—	—		—
22.	Argentina	3.8	16.2	5.4	—	—		0.03			7.8			9.0
23.	Australia	8.5	8.7	2.4	—	—		—			(7-10-16)			8.1
24.	Canada	8.2	11.1	6.3	0.5	0.5		0.06			14.1			12.1
25	Cape colony and Natal	1.0	0.8	0.1	—	—		0.00			4.5			—
26.	Chile	4.1	3.9	0.6	—	—		0.04			14.4			13.0
27.	India	69.4	62.3	9.9	—	—		—		6.3	8.3			—
28.	Japan	3.7	5.1 0.7	4.2	8.4			—	—	10.9	14.4		11.9	15.2
29.	Tunisia	1.0	1.8	0.1	—	—		—	—					—
30.	Uruguay	0.8	1.8	0.1	—	—		0.00			4.5			8.4
31.	United States	122.7	124.2	20.8	6.3	6.7		1.05	8.3	8.6	10.2	8.2	7.9	10.2
	Non-European countries	233.6	245.4	Σ=47.4	11.1	15.7
	World =	554.5	642.7	104.4	303.7	370.1
	Luxemburg			0.02				0.02
	Mexico			0.3				0.00
	New Zealand			0.1				0.00

¹) Countries in italics=“Eastern Europe”. N.B. See general conclusions on the next page.^[2] N.B.							(²) 1913 figures from Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich, 1915. The remainder p. 781.

Per-capita consumption (kg.)

		Germany	France	Great Britain	Italy		Austria- Hungary	Russia
Wheat	1878-82	55.3	214.0	188.1	⎫ ⎬ ⎭	123	—	—
	1883-87	57.2	213.0	164.6			91.8	—
	1888-92	59.8	213.0	171.1			92.5	18.9
	1893-97	71.8	204.0	167.0			100.5	37.4
	1913*)	96

Rye	1878-82	129.3	38.0	1.3		—	—	—
	1883-87	118.6	37.0	2.1		?	66.2	—
	1888-92	108.5	36.0	2.1		3.3	60.4	111.0
	1893-97	126.7	38.0	2.7		2.9	59.2	139.0
	1913*)	153

Barley	1878-82	48.7	31.0	?		—	—	—
	1883-87	51.8	31.0	67.0		?	41.9	—
	1888-92	55.8	32.0	68.6		6.0	37.6	17.8
	1893-97	59.8	31.0	71.7		5.2	38.4	27.1
	1913*)	108

Oats	1878-82	89.1	91.0	?		—	—	—
	1883-87	84.1	95.0	84.6		?	51.9	—
	1888-92	86.9	96.0	87.4		8.1	48.8	48.1
	1893-97	85.3	92.0	85.8		7.2	51.6	65.7
	1913*)	128

Maize	1878-82	5.1	20.6	48.5	⎫ ⎬ ⎭	65.0	—	—
	1883-87	3.8	23.4	41.7			68.2	—
	1888-92	8.4	23.3	44.9			77.6	2.3
	1893-97	14.4	22.4	53.8			82.2	4.7

) Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich, 1915 The figures for 1913, written in pencil, are obviously not comparable*, for even the 1893-97 figures are much higher.

The authors’ general conclusions:

“As already indicated, grain production in the last decades has developed very unevenly in the various countries owing to differences in population and communications factors. In the centre of Western Europe, where development is towards, so to say, urbanisation—in Great Britain, Belgium, Holland, etc.—the decline in crop areas and the increase in relative yields have resulted in diminishing produc- tion of wheat, rye, barley and maize, whereas produc- tion of oats, used mainly for livestock, has increased.


			N.B.

“In all other parts of Western Europe, except for the border regions, a certain fluctuation is to be observed; expansion of crop areas has stopped, but yields are increasing considerably, and production of almost all cereal crops continues to increase. In the border regions between Western and Eastern Europe, in Sweden, Poland, Galicia, Hungary, etc., total production is growing very considerably owing to expansion of crop areas, and still more to much higher yields. In Eastern Europe, chiefly as a result of larger crop areas, grain production has risen enormously, but only in the main cereals, not the secondary ones.




			N.B.

“In overseas areas, a distinction should be drawn between such countries as the United States, Canada, Argentina and Uruguay, whose geographical position and the development of communications and the railway system have brought them into much closer contact with the densely populated centres of Western Europe, and all the other areas. The former have developed their grain production chiefly by extending crop areas, sometimes very rapidly- among the latter, however, only a few have increased production. Limit- ed production has obliged Egypt and Japan to import grain; Algeria and Tunisia, as a result of French eco- nomic policy, mainly supply France, while India, South Africa and Australia, because of their popu- lation conditions and underdeveloped communications system, have not produced any stable, big surpluses over and above domestic requirements” (p. 36).

					N.B.

					N.B.

Notes

[1] See pp. 478-81 of this volume.—Ed.

[2] See p. 483 of this volume.—Ed.

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